Brook Lopez is experiencing one of his least impressive three-point shooting seasons since joining the Milwaukee Bucks in 2018. The question arises: in the highly effective Milwaukee Bucks’ offensive system, when does an open three transition from being a good to a poor shot?
Lopez’s accuracy from beyond the arc is currently at 32.5%, marking the second-lowest success rate since he adopted the role of a floor-spacing big man. Interestingly, among the 61 players who have taken a minimum of 150 three-point attempts this season, he ranks 58th in terms of percentage. Despite these numbers, Lopez continues to take shots from downtown, launching at least four three-point attempts in five of his last six games.
Given the offensive prowess of players like Damian Lillard, Giannis Antetokounmpo, and Khris Middleton, who lead one of the NBA’s top offenses, the question emerges: how frequently should Lopez attempt threes from the perimeter? Is there a more favorable shot available for the team, and what is the optimal number of attempts? To address these questions, let’s examine insights from both analytics and game footage.
Analytical insights reveal that Brook Lopez’s three-point attempts in the current season yield 0.97 points per shot attempt, a decline from 1.09 last year when he achieved a career-high 37.4 percent accuracy from beyond the arc. This performance also falls short when compared to the points generated by shots from teammates like Giannis Antetokounmpo (1.64), Damian Lillard (1.49), Khris Middleton (1.25), Malik Beasley (1.33), or Bobby Portis (1.26)—players with whom he frequently shares the court.
Notably, when Lopez engages in cuts instead of positioning himself around the three-point line, the data shows an impressive 1.69 points per shot attempt. While this dataset isn’t perfect due to the lack of specificity regarding the nature of his cuts (directly to the basket or otherwise), it provides a clear indication of his effectiveness moving toward the hoop. However, the challenge lies in the fact that he executes fewer than two cuts per game while attempting around five threes, primarily of the spot-up variety. Solely considering analytics suggests that he should be cutting to the hoop twice as often as he engages in spot-up plays. Nevertheless, the complete picture involves more than just analytics.
Switching gears to the visual analysis, Lopez’s performance was notable during the game against the Brooklyn Nets, where he went 1-for-7, including 0-for-6 from beyond the arc. This particular game provides an opportunity to dissect his on-court dynamics, both with and without the ball.
